Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on February 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbef70d0fb920990764e24fe43a33f92dfb6e8a65a78e11ce31fdc5bdffbe4aec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacd4…888cbacked Yes | 1c | 809.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 71c | 405.48$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 241.56$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 26c | 218.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 177.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 69c | 149.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 14c | 137.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 39c | 136.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 129.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 28c | 116.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 114.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…c1eebacked Yes | 20c | 101.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795a…570abacked Yes | 29c | 86.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 81.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 75.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 78c | 75.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…d8cebacked Yes | 19c | 63.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…fb85backed Yes | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0316…2bfdbacked Yes | 44c | 56.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…d805backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…57c7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 49.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd230…f600backed Yes | 22c | 46.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…02febacked Yes | 46c | 43.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…fce1backed Yes | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 71c | 32.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 65c | 32.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 40c | 29.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…ceb2backed No | 77c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 22.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on February 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or higher on February 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.