Tennis · resolved market
Valentin Vacherot vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf1230a3eae767057d89ab55a2c35b952b33a0741843c7200fe684fd9a35f09a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 2,500$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.98 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 968.15$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.53 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 59c | 780$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.2 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 689.43$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.87 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under 2.5 | 30c | 493.54$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 459.62$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.58 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 42c | 374$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Over 2.5 | 41c | 355.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 27c | 315.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4e…af9ebacked Under 2.5 | 20c | 243.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Over 2.5 | 41c | 235.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over 2.5 | 54c | 234.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 144.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…c9b6backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 119.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Over 2.5 | 41c | 117.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 114.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 112.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…c9ecbacked Over 2.5 | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over 2.5 | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 71.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.5 | 43c | 61.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over 2.5 | 72c | 57.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…f3e8backed Over 2.5 | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…668bbacked Over 2.5 | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 27.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over 2.5 | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over 2.5 | 71c | 24.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 20.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valentin Vacherot vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de MinaurValentin Vacherot won
- Set 1 Winner: Vacherot vs MinaurVacherot won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Vacherot (+1.5)Vacherot won
- Vacherot vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Vacherot vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Vacherot vs. Minaur: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Vacherot vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.