Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Vacherot (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12e1503f27cd9d1d104bae909abe636f8641bdc3f55a6f5ebf403b2a3c620dd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vacherotof Minaur, Vacherot
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Vacherot | 70c | 499.36$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.79 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…9cd0backed Minaur | 46c | 465.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.22 | 504 | 42.7%215 W · 289 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vacherot | 57c | 449.78$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.63 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Minaur | 40c | 423.51$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.04 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Minaur | 39c | 333.32$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.31 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…2dedbacked Vacherot | 61c | 295.57$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.27 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Vacherot | 71c | 272.31$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Vacherot | 60c | 252.41$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Minaur | 38c | 250.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Minaur | 42c | 229.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Vacherot | 57c | 209.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Minaur | 41c | 179.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…eed9backed Vacherot | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Minaur | 21c | 139.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Vacherot | 59c | 123.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Vacherot | 55c | 119.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Minaur | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Minaur | 33c | 95.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Vacherot | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 346 | 37.9%131 W · 215 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5578…f06cbacked Vacherot | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Vacherot | 59c | 77.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Minaur | 43c | 70.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Vacherot | 63c | 58.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Vacherot | 58c | 48.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Vacherot | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…bb2abacked Vacherot | 59c | 39.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Vacherot | 76c | 39.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Minaur | 47c | 38.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Minaur | 41c | 38.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…52cabacked Vacherot | 58c | 33.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Vacherot (+1.5)this page
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de MinaurValentin Vacherot won
- Set 1 Winner: Vacherot vs MinaurVacherot won
- Vacherot vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Vacherot vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Vacherot vs. Minaur: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Vacherot vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Valentin Vacherot vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.