Mls · resolved market
Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf2121200b4e9b1492e479376d834388eb215c749e4a6107f3ab0fc0c51e0756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis City SCof FC Dallas, St. Louis City SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Dallas | 26c | 999.9$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.97 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed FC Dallas | 17c | 359.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis City SC | 74c | 317$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.42 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Dallas | 24c | 308.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked St. Louis City SC | 77c | 153$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked St. Louis City SC | 74c | 95.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed St. Louis City SC | 74c | 79.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed St. Louis City SC | 74c | 79.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked St. Louis City SC | 74c | 79.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed St. Louis City SC | 74c | 79.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed St. Louis City SC | 74c | 79.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed St. Louis City SC | 74c | 78.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed St. Louis City SC | 75c | 78.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked St. Louis City SC | 75c | 78.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed St. Louis City SC | 75c | 78.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked St. Louis City SC | 75c | 78.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed St. Louis City SC | 75c | 78.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked St. Louis City SC | 74c | 63.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Dallas | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed FC Dallas | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed St. Louis City SC | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed St. Louis City SC | 74c | 31.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked St. Louis City SC | 74c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed St. Louis City SC | 76c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)this page
- FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.