Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c07ae565f010e987eb1f45decf069dcc337c9adc943a10cbccba12aa27c8c9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 37c | 9,413$3,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,479.87 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Under | 63c | 7,500$4,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,775 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 14c | 4,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 15c | 1,300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 36c | 557.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 72c | 267$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 37c | 229.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 62c | 190.37$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 63c | 180$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 37c | 172$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Under | 63c | 157.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 35c | 88.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 64c | 65.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 64c | 63.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 57.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Over | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…5626backed Over | 38c | 38.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 64c | 22.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 64c | 22.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 64c | 22.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 64c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Dallas vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)St. Louis City SC won
- Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.