Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf27ebb2eee7463cd1b66c0e3828adf026bd932c435a516c3a3b66ce1d456b49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a8f…e5f5backed Under | 51c | 5,037$2,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,568.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 2,989$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.64 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,148$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.9 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 24c | 805.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.21 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 76c | 789.47$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.47 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 49c | 667.82$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.36 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 49c | 448.92$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.21 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5b…2501backed Over | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Over | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…cce5backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…d292backed Over | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 35c | 125$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 80.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 47c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 44c | 79.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 61c | 74.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x539c…29b1backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 75c | 57.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4466…cd34backed Under | 25c | 57.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -5.2wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4bad…1e9ebacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 72c | 41.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…d77ebacked Over | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e8…2f67backed Over | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 49c | 36.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 51c | 30.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…6600backed Over | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 0.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 0.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Toulouse FC O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.