Ligue 1 · resolved market
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa376afed8b1fba65c2e29b74bc1c5a3af2897ebb77a4a4f42c464dc161222477
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 9,483$4,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,871.09 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 7,048$3,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,617.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 51c | 6,941$3,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,553.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 51c | 4,510$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300.1 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 68c | 3,642$2,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.24 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 2,834$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,445.43 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 51c | 1,879$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.24 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 1,808$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.85 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,591$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.28 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 1,548$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.28 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Under | 50c | 1,538$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 49c | 1,219$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.8 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…e800backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 14c | 808.14$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 690.16$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.08 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 49c | 521.69$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.06 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 53c | 387$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.11 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…fad4backed Under | 49c | 303$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 42c | 290.06$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 50c | 264$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 181.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Under | 58c | 170$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 17c | 159.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…1e6dbacked Under | 76c | 131.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Over | 51c | 125.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 69c | 114.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 15c | 112.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 43c | 77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…d827backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe087…bc81backed Over | 18c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 36c | 50.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…fd3cbacked Under | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 33c | 47.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 51c | 39.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Over | 35c | 34.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Under | 76c | 32.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed Under | 50c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 56c | 28.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 49c | 24.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Over | 51c | 20.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…d312backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 0.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 0.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Olympique Lyonnais O/U 1.5Over won
- Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Toulouse FC O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.