South American Leagues · resolved market
Independiente Medellín vs. Cusco FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf3ff73a72f3baa1860c5c3b219495a8dd23e94ddc3e41c521bcd6a901da78cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 27c | 2,582$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.8 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 2,452$1,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.27 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 58c | 1,799$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.62 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 42c | 1,088$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.49 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 597.05$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.88 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 585.86$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 47c | 429.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.89 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 33c | 394.85$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 78c | 319.61$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 45c | 230$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed Over | 8c | 229.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Over | 53c | 187.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…70f8backed Over | 56c | 176.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…04a7backed Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 139.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 21c | 129.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…130bbacked Over | 22c | 118.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 42c | 100.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 77c | 85.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 56c | 79.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 51c | 78.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed Over | 39c | 66.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 76c | 65.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 43c | 58.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 57.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 37.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807a…3be2backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 68c | 31.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…c0e2backed Under | 71c | 28.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 78c | 19.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Independiente Medellín vs. Cusco FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Independiente Medellín vs. Cusco FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Independiente Medellín vs. Cusco FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Independiente Medellín vs. Cusco FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Independiente Medellín vs. Cusco FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Independiente Medellín (-1.5)Cusco FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.