Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf42098d3223133cd7cc61430bda4f388dbafae866c1b2de846bf4c13a249c3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 5,376$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.83 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 25c | 2,836$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5d…f4e1backed No | 75c | 2,836$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked No | 74c | 2,311$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 32c | 549.88$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.96 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 68c | 467.1$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.64 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 73c | 447.69$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…6853backed Yes | 27c | 225.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…0972backed No | 74c | 81.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 62c | 81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008e…5747backed No | 74c | 80.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 68.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…ad4fbacked No | 74c | 64.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…9dfabacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 68c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-28?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.