Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d51f0ee55c408c6003601c507c74c2a65c6ecce44ee3e2e75a822c2642cf588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 62c | 2,795$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.67 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,875$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 65c | 1,419$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.06 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 59c | 1,031$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…33babacked Yes | 41c | 878$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 39c | 782.36$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.2 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 64c | 714.54$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.85 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 60c | 540.83$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 62c | 526.32$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.32 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 63c | 500.08$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.7 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 40c | 375$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 62c | 370$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.4 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 38c | 342.11$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.11 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 38c | 313.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.61 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 60c | 288.01$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.81 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 61c | 258.21$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 57c | 256.97$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.47 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 66c | 240.91$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.82 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 43c | 234.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.32 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 72c | 233$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.76 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 36c | 222.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.22 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Yes | 32c | 203.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 30c | 200.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.1 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 60c | 182.93$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 18c | 167$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…c5c8backed Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…bcf4backed Yes | 38c | 132.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 39c | 109.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 39c | 109$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 61c | 90.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 37c | 88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…2489backed Yes | 42c | 59.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…f6a0backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 28c | 54.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…a9dfbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2c…2e31backed Yes | 36c | 44.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 80c | 44.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…5388backed Yes | 35c | 43.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…4812backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321c…18ddbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5385…9b12backed Yes | 43c | 30.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…a39fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6adb…fac7backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.