Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb045c2f079bb10f09c8b3d5fb62a29ccdd4567ecdfef18b8ea297e3c1213c8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f79…1608backed No | 65c | 18,832$12,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,603.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 35c | 16,813$5,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,884.41 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 35c | 1,422$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 1,323$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.26 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 64c | 457.86$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.81 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 68c | 452.26$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 67c | 355.3$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.25 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x205c…f554backed Yes | 38c | 218.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…c48dbacked Yes | 30c | 195.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 65c | 170.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010c…e732backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…f6a0backed Yes | 35c | 122.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 40c | 95.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 62c | 87.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 61c | 76.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 20c | 55.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…a327backed Yes | 36c | 55.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…72adbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 36c | 49.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…5388backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…2b86backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…105dbacked No | 68c | 22.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 66c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.