South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate win on 2025-11-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf7038c4dceffa40b90b4ce9f22065549fea6e4ced254bd7b7e1b121777cd39f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 27c | 2,497$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.88 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Yes | 19c | 1,400$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,116$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.97 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 773$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.15 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Yes | 73c | 694.38$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.9 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 36c | 574.8$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.06 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 75c | 551.16$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.32 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Yes | 53c | 540$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Yes | 68c | 396.6$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked No | 48c | 341$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.94 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 68c | 217.67$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked No | 26c | 199.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 62c | 193.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…bc30backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…4413backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75c…86d0backed Yes | 76c | 121.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 24c | 110.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…f9bfbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…9ab4backed Yes | 76c | 85.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…c317backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 24c | 55.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876c…7d86backed Yes | 76c | 54.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 35c | 45.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cc…8671backed Yes | 76c | 43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…f4d8backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c0…e18fbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4367…99efbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…121bbacked Yes | 76c | 25.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate win on 2025-11-02?this page
- Will CA River Plate vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata end in a draw?No won
- Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2025-11-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.