NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfa1239f6bc5dc932ef0db13203805db3757d33582c3516c34ac8637fb46a3ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jacketsof Red Wings, Blue Jackets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x299f…2140backed Red Wings | 29c | 3,470$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.3 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Blue Jackets | 71c | 3,410$2,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.79 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Blue Jackets | 70c | 1,068$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.44 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Red Wings | 30c | 931.01$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.64 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Blue Jackets | 69c | 384.84$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Red Wings | 29c | 350.34$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…0ceebacked Blue Jackets | 70c | 101$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…19f8backed Red Wings | 30c | 75.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Blue Jackets | 71c | 50.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Red Wings | 29c | 48.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Blue Jackets | 76c | 35.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Blue Jackets | 79c | 33.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Blue Jackets | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Blue Jackets | 69c | 19.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Blue Jackets | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Blue Jackets vs. Red WingsBlue Jackets won
- Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.