Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UMBC Retrievers vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfa2f5a80994c213eada209ca3069a6f38aa05dd844bede82e57889a2136f672
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshall Thundering Herdof UMBC Retrievers, Marshall Thundering Herd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,214 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked UMBC Retrievers | 8c | 735.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed UMBC Retrievers | 25c | 570.34$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.39 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 77c | 500$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed UMBC Retrievers | 9c | 302.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…a329backed UMBC Retrievers | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 76c | 188$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 74c | 187.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2709backed UMBC Retrievers | 27c | 108.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac9c…73eabacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked UMBC Retrievers | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 79c | 98.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed UMBC Retrievers | 31c | 88.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed UMBC Retrievers | 19c | 68.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 80c | 67.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed UMBC Retrievers | 20c | 57.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 56cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 71c | 29.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 74c | 21.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.