NHL · resolved market
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Iowa Wild
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfb5c73b788a17bfdd8f3790bd916ca6d093643dd0cccba4c39ee26ef508c324
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Wolvesof Chicago Wolves, Iowa Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Iowa Wild | 48c | 3,255$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.7 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Chicago Wolves | 52c | 2,079$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.82 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Iowa Wild | 50c | 798.35$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.03 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Chicago Wolves | 52c | 357.44$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Chicago Wolves | 50c | 252.2$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Chicago Wolves | 52c | 224.12$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192c…b6cdbacked Chicago Wolves | 50c | 191.09$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Chicago Wolves | 52c | 168.02$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Iowa Wild | 33c | 144.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Chicago Wolves | 50c | 135.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Chicago Wolves | 54c | 120.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Chicago Wolves | 52c | 112.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Chicago Wolves | 53c | 110.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Chicago Wolves | 53c | 110.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago Wolves | 67c | 95.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…5f1fbacked Iowa Wild | 50c | 78.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Iowa Wild | 33c | 52.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…5403backed Chicago Wolves | 50c | 50.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Chicago Wolves | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Chicago Wolves | 64c | 46.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Iowa Wild | 43c | 45.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Chicago Wolves | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked Iowa Wild | 44c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Chicago Wolves | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 208 | 55.8%116 W · 92 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Chicago Wolves | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.