Tennis · resolved market
Monza: Andrea Guerrieri vs Mattia Bellucci
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfb9bd30e344dbfcba2760d13c1ac1de8f970739abfe4fb10f59b494e4609a05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mattia Bellucciof Andrea Guerrieri, Mattia Bellucci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Andrea Guerrieri | 17c | 6,529$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.16 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…c2f0backed Mattia Bellucci | 80c | 3,718$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.55 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | -27.7wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Andrea Guerrieri | 17c | 2,167$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.9 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Mattia Bellucci | 75c | 2,013$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.33 | 141 | 62.4%88 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Andrea Guerrieri | 10c | 1,251$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.73 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Andrea Guerrieri | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Andrea Guerrieri | 27c | 873.33$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.68 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…3efebacked Andrea Guerrieri | 6c | 786.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Andrea Guerrieri | 23c | 541.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Andrea Guerrieri | 20c | 510.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Andrea Guerrieri | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Andrea Guerrieri | 24c | 397.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Andrea Guerrieri | 26c | 388.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Mattia Bellucci | 79c | 379.77$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked Mattia Bellucci | 70c | 318.5$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 525 | 57%299 W · 226 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Mattia Bellucci | 75c | 309.81$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Andrea Guerrieri | 25c | 239.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Andrea Guerrieri | 20c | 216.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Andrea Guerrieri | 20c | 216.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Andrea Guerrieri | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…ea3bbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 24c | 188.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 333 | 46.2%154 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Andrea Guerrieri | 23c | 167.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 26c | 163.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Andrea Guerrieri | 10c | 145.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…a351backed Mattia Bellucci | 74c | 143.46$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 352 | 68.2%240 W · 112 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Mattia Bellucci | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c4…26f2backed Andrea Guerrieri | 27c | 139.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Mattia Bellucci | 77c | 127.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a38bbacked Mattia Bellucci | 80c | 125.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 225 | 67.1%151 W · 74 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Andrea Guerrieri | 24c | 111.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Andrea Guerrieri | 24c | 108.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Mattia Bellucci | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Andrea Guerrieri | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Mattia Bellucci | 76c | 98.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…3afdbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 32c | 96.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Mattia Bellucci | 68c | 95.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…934dbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 13c | 94.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 307 | 15.6%48 W · 259 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 13c | 92.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Andrea Guerrieri | 24c | 75.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 389 | 55.3%215 W · 174 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ed…72efbacked Andrea Guerrieri | 26c | 73.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 387 | 54.3%210 W · 177 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed Andrea Guerrieri | 25c | 71.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…e9c8backed Andrea Guerrieri | 26c | 67.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Mattia Bellucci | 74c | 66.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 647 | 55%356 W · 291 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed Andrea Guerrieri | 18c | 62.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Andrea Guerrieri | 25c | 62.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 587 | 34.6%203 W · 384 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Mattia Bellucci | 75c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 206 | 70.4%145 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Andrea Guerrieri | 20c | 51.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Andrea Guerrieri | 28c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81cc…696ebacked Andrea Guerrieri | 28c | 50.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Andrea Guerrieri | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…6a88backed Andrea Guerrieri | 23c | 47.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Andrea Guerrieri | 24c | 41.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…e467backed Mattia Bellucci | 72c | 41.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…1d51backed Mattia Bellucci | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Mattia Bellucci | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Mattia Bellucci | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 652 | 64.1%418 W · 234 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Mattia Bellucci | 72c | 28.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…a557backed Mattia Bellucci | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Mattia Bellucci | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Mattia Bellucci | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Mattia Bellucci | 75c | 25.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Mattia Bellucci | 74c | 25.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Mattia Bellucci | 73c | 24.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf91…dc43backed Mattia Bellucci | 70c | 23.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 132 | 61.4%81 W · 51 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Mattia Bellucci | 78c | 22.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Mattia Bellucci | 73c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Mattia Bellucci | 74c | 17.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Mattia Bellucci | 74c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 197 | 61.4%121 W · 76 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fe…09c9backed Mattia Bellucci | 75c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 220 | 49.5%109 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Monza: Andrea Guerrieri vs Mattia Belluccithis page
- Guerrieri vs. Bellucci: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.