South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate win on 2025-10-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfe3d61a255a80d0303dff74eb074297c0ac1f2d4bb2f0b4296772d7e7e98232
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 19c | 110,100$21,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,366 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 50c | 33,890$16,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,820.89 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 58c | 24,771$14,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,340.79 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 18,103$13,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,585.49 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 67c | 11,705$7,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,862.74 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 67c | 10,602$7,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,498.8 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 48c | 10,324$4,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,356.83 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 29c | 9,955$2,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,059.07 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 32c | 7,488$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,091.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee22…e221backed Yes | 69c | 4,026$2,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,785.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 75c | 2,791$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.75 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 75c | 870.08$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.56 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 46c | 834.54$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.09 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…08b9backed Yes | 69c | 489.18$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Yes | 68c | 314.13$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.61 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Yes | 13c | 244.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 240.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed No | 53c | 205.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 32c | 164.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 24c | 145.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 74c | 135.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc0…b5f7backed No | 64c | 106.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +170.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 31c | 99.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 30c | 99.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…8f9cbacked Yes | 68c | 65.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…4333backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 31c | 49.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 28c | 47.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ba…c837backed Yes | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc68…b3b0backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 64c | 22.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…98b0backed Yes | 72c | 14.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate win on 2025-10-12?this page
- Will CA River Plate vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.