Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc020ef5b7507316bd39d4df3356f074d577cf69268448d318b5505a508d60d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 24c | 147.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 125.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 48c | 124.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 21c | 110.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 102.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 84.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 82.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 76.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 40c | 75.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 70.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 68.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 66.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 65.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 65.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 60c | 61.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 25c | 59.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 40c | 58.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…606ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 40c | 51.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 64c | 45.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…5f26backed Yes | 36c | 38.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 38.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 34.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 27.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 27.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 43c | 25.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 24.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 24.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 23.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 66c | 22.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 20.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.