World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc033ebfa90d002fdacc3fe1f057e5e702eb705951672710166f3737b5b789af5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 1,093$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 993.08$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 16c | 528.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…14f4backed Yes | 17c | 427.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 11c | 411.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 392.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 380.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 4c | 353.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 285.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 12c | 249.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked Yes | 12c | 220.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 17c | 218.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 215.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 177.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 79c | 175$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 77c | 153.59$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 12c | 140.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 139.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 29c | 136.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 15c | 133.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 12c | 130.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 124.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 105.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae34…f8bcbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 91.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 18c | 84.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 79.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 15c | 73.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…1c8fbacked No | 78c | 57.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…e93ebacked No | 78c | 39.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 28.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd8…a8a6backed No | 78c | 25.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.