TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes52c868.93$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.279337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes43c857.69$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.129020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No35c451.76$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No60c445.03$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.9921844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes68c433.67$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.2114842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No35c396.48$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8613357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c392$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.6835258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No46c341.86$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4536055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes45c317.32$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.997741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes36c314.91$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.323828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes36c312.4$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.7439231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No37c305$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0322355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No21c303.08$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7240648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No23c271.02$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.544841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c263.74$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.2527521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes75c260.79$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.12846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No32c255.85$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1114656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f8…2f98backed Yes35c228.54$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8283…a336backed No79c222.81$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c215.19$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.4744138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c213.37$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes40c204.16$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.155536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked No10c196.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.77234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes26c195.24$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.84922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+95.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No35c191.24$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.712454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes78c190.84$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.067353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes73c188.8$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.176346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No64c175.47$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.693565.7%23 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No63c167.48$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5812055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No51c165.95$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2413748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No32c159.76$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1216834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No62c159.06$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5110864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No53c157$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1139952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes34c149.81$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.534436.4%16 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes39c147.87$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.871338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No29c145.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.224645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No60c142.8$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5939414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes36c139.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0810733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c139.51$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5144428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3e8e…9665backed Yes37c136.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+172.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c128.71$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8134354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes38c125$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No66c123$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.032347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No67c119.03$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.759160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes38c118.97$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2318638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No60c117.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.348856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes73c114.71$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4514954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No68c112.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.755072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c107.74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.961,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed Yes80c106.26$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.413351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6511045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes77c99.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No66c96.76$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4415558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4832354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes35c95.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.066330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No25c91.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2426632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No64c91.18$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.587058.6%41 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No34c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.610414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes78c89.3$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202060%12 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c88.54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.117030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes33c87.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.433743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes39c85.58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.583033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes36c84.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.34683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.53per pick30cpaid+236.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes29c81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3716934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes72c79.16$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9715954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No62c77.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.937236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7912640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes35c74$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.14862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a05…9caebacked Yes41c73.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+114.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes40c70$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No73c68.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.332544%11 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes28c66.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.961533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes76c66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.844953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfad2…3887backed No76c65.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed No39c64.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49c…3bb4backed Yes42c63.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.99742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes79c63.35$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.351464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes59c63.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.994868.8%33 W · 15 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No22c62.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0412249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No61c62.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.191346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes36c61$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.38038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes33c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.216738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.83735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.715066%33 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4050…ee77backed Yes51c58.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1387…24a7backed Yes31c57.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.511421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes36c55.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5512238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes36c54.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.864231%13 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No21c53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1316051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6508…c045backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3217345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+113.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.51735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes79c49.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.392263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x737c…cdf2backed Yes44c49.85$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes28c49.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.787842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No67c49.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.115056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.