World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ca4d9b5945f30753867cb82e0af3c7e11493eaa9265ae3401cc0451088ea284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 52c | 868.93$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.27 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 43c | 857.69$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.12 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 451.76$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.26 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 445.03$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.99 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 68c | 433.67$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.21 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 35c | 396.48$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 392$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.68 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 341.86$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.45 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 317.32$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.99 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes | 36c | 314.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.32 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 312.4$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.74 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 305$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 303.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 23c | 271.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 263.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.25 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 75c | 260.79$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 32c | 255.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…2f98backed Yes | 35c | 228.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8283…a336backed No | 79c | 222.81$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 215.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.47 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 213.37$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 40c | 204.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 10c | 196.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 26c | 195.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 35c | 191.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 78c | 190.84$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 73c | 188.8$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 175.47$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 63c | 167.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 165.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 159.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 159.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 157$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 34c | 149.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 39c | 147.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 29c | 145.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 142.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 36c | 139.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 139.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed Yes | 37c | 136.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 128.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 125$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 123$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 67c | 119.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 118.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 117.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 114.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 112.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 107.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 80c | 106.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 96.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 95.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 91.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 91.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 78c | 89.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 88.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 33c | 87.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 39c | 85.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 36c | 84.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 30cpaid | +236.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 29c | 81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 72c | 79.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 62c | 77.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 35c | 74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…9caebacked Yes | 41c | 73.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 73c | 68.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 28c | 66.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad2…3887backed No | 76c | 65.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed No | 39c | 64.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49c…3bb4backed Yes | 42c | 63.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 79c | 63.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 59c | 63.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 22c | 62.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 61c | 62.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 36c | 61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4050…ee77backed Yes | 51c | 58.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1387…24a7backed Yes | 31c | 57.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 54.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 79c | 49.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…cdf2backed Yes | 44c | 49.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 49.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 67c | 49.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.