World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa74b97ce46403d8bb147bc988ba639402df18e715f3c6bd8629a1217cfff8004
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 863.81$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.95 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 36c | 561.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 410.29$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 392$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 365.46$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 355.11$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.07 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 313.46$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 300.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 31c | 284.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 284.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 38c | 273.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 266.24$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 263.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 242.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 29c | 209.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 207.39$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 78c | 203$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec6…b6cebacked Yes | 10c | 172.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 63c | 167.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 15c | 162.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 161.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 45c | 154.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 28c | 153.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 32c | 145.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 128.55$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 127.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 126$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 124.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 123.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 117.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 108.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 29c | 103.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 103.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 101.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 100.21$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 41c | 97.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…6d6ebacked Yes | 31c | 97.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 95.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 33c | 95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 32c | 93.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 66c | 91.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -70%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 89.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 27c | 88.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 21c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 87.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 86.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 84.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 67c | 83.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 67c | 80.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 71c | 78.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 23c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 40c | 75.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 36c | 73.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 72.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 71.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 71.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 72c | 69.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b6…e2aebacked Yes | 30c | 66.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +136%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 76c | 65.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 64.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49c…3bb4backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae34…f8bcbacked Yes | 29c | 60.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 42c | 60.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 58.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 40c | 56.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 47c | 56.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 54.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 54.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacfd…c217backed Yes | 29c | 52.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 51.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 51.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…2ed5backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 55cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed No | 62c | 48.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 48.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 60c | 47.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 46.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 32c | 45.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 44.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.