Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Tabilo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0340f39327afc50500d4bf719bdd80480f44c3e189563341d9bc6c5f5eb8af0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Fonseca, Tabilo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cbe…c2f3backed Tabilo | 60c | 399.64$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.78 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fonseca | 40c | 395.19$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.12 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…0d9cbacked Tabilo | 59c | 310.28$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.92 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed Fonseca | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fonseca | 39c | 299.98$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.99 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Tabilo | 36c | 270.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Tabilo | 60c | 270.2$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fonseca | 39c | 252.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Fonseca | 48c | 239.38$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…529dbacked Fonseca | 49c | 184.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Tabilo | 59c | 164.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Tabilo | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x112e…0d1fbacked Tabilo | 61c | 159.92$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 349 | 65%227 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Fonseca | 26c | 149.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Tabilo | 47c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tabilo | 60c | 118.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…abd7backed Fonseca | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Tabilo | 60c | 104.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…d209backed Tabilo | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Fonseca | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…1fbfbacked Fonseca | 43c | 62.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81d9…3d1fbacked Tabilo | 59c | 48.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Fonseca | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Fonseca | 40c | 45.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Tabilo | 60c | 45.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeeb…8a76backed Fonseca | 45c | 42.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda22…6d2abacked Fonseca | 46c | 35.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 353 | 44.8%158 W · 195 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Tabilo | 59c | 32.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 573 | 49.6%284 W · 289 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked Tabilo | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Fonseca | 40c | 31.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Fonseca | 48c | 26.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Fonseca | 40c | 25.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Tabilo | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Tabilo (+1.5)this page
- Alejandro Tabilo vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- BMW Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
- Set 1 Winner: Tabilo vs FonsecaFonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.