Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Panathinaikós AO vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc038ddbaf8af4ab81c3d14be96c452c10b4e22351bef98dbba0c48b2c5bf6142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 3,681$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.93 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 22c | 3,018$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.88 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Yes | 27c | 2,589$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.98 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 55c | 2,207$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.36 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 78c | 949.57$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.6 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 60c | 789.61$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.43 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 681.58$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.84 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 76c | 350$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…7d4abacked Yes | 51c | 335$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 24c | 280$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 24c | 249.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b52…ffcbbacked Yes | 11c | 195.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 76c | 189$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 23c | 107$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 74.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 53c | 66.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f16…2d56backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 24c | 47.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 29c | 41.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 24c | 40.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…300cbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Panathinaikós AO vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz end in a draw?this page
- Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2025-11-27?Yes won
- Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz win on 2025-11-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.