MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Athletics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc04c5328ad22a7a2eae4ec9e8de918b9a838f37ee9b690bcc770135af5ed8dbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked New York Mets | 59c | 4,902$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.2 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked New York Mets | 57c | 1,852$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.94 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Athletics | 43c | 1,374$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.36 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Athletics | 41c | 1,260$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.47 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…2a8ebacked Athletics | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Athletics | 40c | 952.44$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.34 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed New York Mets | 53c | 944.42$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.42 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Athletics | 41c | 766.48$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.6 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 44c | 658$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked New York Mets | 57c | 637$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.14 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Athletics | 44c | 550$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…a40abacked Athletics | 49c | 204.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Athletics | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Mets | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked New York Mets | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed New York Mets | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed New York Mets | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Mets | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Athletics | 46c | 79.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed New York Mets | 43c | 74.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed New York Mets | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed New York Mets | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Athletics | 43c | 34.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Mets | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked New York Mets | 60c | 31.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Athletics | 44c | 24.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.