Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump release FBI Russia investigation files by next Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc053f1e27a59f1a867cfb07b3d3f43d80d07980d86664ee18963723aac516c8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cda…2ec9backed Yes | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…bee5backed Yes | 5c | 900$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 26c | 305.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…a20abacked Yes | 31c | 274.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8df…11dabacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed No | 79c | 143.9$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…87e8backed No | 71c | 140.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked No | 74c | 134.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 41c | 116.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…624abacked No | 74c | 44.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd64f…cedebacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 33c | 42.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 70c | 38.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccf…a7a3backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 74c | 28.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…bad1backed No | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.