NHL · resolved market
Spread: Islanders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc06457acf75f7c6b6c8de163f678a80f0964d62632b83b1f135756d407eab28c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Islanders, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Islanders | 30c | 6,767$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.1 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…6900backed Kraken | 70c | 2,877$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.98 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Kraken | 70c | 2,733$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.9 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786c…cc36backed Islanders | 30c | 1,047$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Kraken | 70c | 1,041$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.19 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Islanders | 32c | 863$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.87 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kraken | 68c | 648.14$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.26 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Kraken | 70c | 575.53$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.66 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Kraken | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…5376backed Kraken | 70c | 420$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…9d98backed Kraken | 70c | 360$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Kraken | 69c | 342.85$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.28 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x307e…98a0backed Kraken | 70c | 280$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Islanders | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kraken | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Islanders | 31c | 139.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Kraken | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Kraken | 69c | 29.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Kraken | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Kraken | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Kraken | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 317 | 53.9%171 W · 146 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Kraken | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Kraken | 69c | 14.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. KrakenKraken won
- Islanders vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.