NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x928d6b99eba02bfb0b097ab4d741b9bb5b8def20d5679266edd1760d306abe2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Over | 51c | 3,138$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.38 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Under | 49c | 2,450$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.5 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 2,290$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.26 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 51c | 2,185$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.53 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 51c | 2,003$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.37 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 2,002$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.43 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 53c | 1,898$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.87 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 50c | 1,590$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Over | 52c | 927.33$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.29 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 788.9$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.37 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 759.88$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.6 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 49c | 545.11$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.17 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…e842backed Under | 50c | 510.66$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.48 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 495.08$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.64 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Over | 50c | 472.39$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.6 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 405.28$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.64 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 49c | 383.43$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 42c | 365.67$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.96 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 181.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Under | 56c | 171$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 43c | 133$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 47c | 128$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…0103backed Under | 54c | 121.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 37c | 108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Under | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Under | 50c | 99.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 49c | 84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc3…6112backed Over | 52c | 83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 48c | 74.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 51c | 74.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e19…ff87backed Under | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…3cdebacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…8b83backed Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed Over | 52c | 61.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…07f5backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…b227backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 50c | 45.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Under | 52c | 38.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Under | 51c | 20.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…772abacked Under | 50c | 19.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5this page
- Islanders vs. KrakenKraken won
- Islanders vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Kraken won
- Spread: Kraken (-1.5)Kraken won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.