Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc06e0077862aa7cb1d655e2d27e86ab7d8eee1b4b0b3c4c1001b6aecb893cde8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Inner Circle, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf991…3965backed Inner Circle | 56c | 2,554$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.63 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 1,557$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.13 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 1,401$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.59 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 1,288$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.81 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…4dd0backed Nemiga Gaming | 9c | 815.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…53d0backed Inner Circle | 62c | 705.94$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.77 | 209 | 49.8%104 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked Inner Circle | 63c | 550$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 550$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Nemiga Gaming | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 325.4$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Inner Circle | 62c | 322.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 309.55$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Inner Circle | 62c | 299.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Nemiga Gaming | 18c | 248.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 240.25$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Inner Circle | 57c | 238.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968a…3841backed Inner Circle | 76c | 208.13$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 209 | 39.2%82 W · 127 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Inner Circle | 54c | 201.88$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Inner Circle | 67c | 177.34$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Inner Circle | 62c | 155.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle | 58c | 149.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 133.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 121.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Inner Circle | 55c | 102.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Inner Circle | 53c | 84.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Inner Circle | 58c | 74.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed Inner Circle | 78c | 70.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe83…82a8backed Inner Circle | 55c | 40.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Inner Circle | 64c | 38.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d10…1112backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 32.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Inner Circle | 54c | 27.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier 2 PlayoffsInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.