Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf33b14028945b02c5d56837a4578d4257c040997e96b40cfa3fc3288fd87c66d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Inner Circle, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Inner Circle | 61c | 5,412$3,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,298.58 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 3,956$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,531.93 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 2,553$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.33 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…3c1abacked Inner Circle | 27c | 1,605$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.81 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 64c | 1,111$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.39 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Inner Circle | 27c | 1,038$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.16 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Inner Circle | 43c | 918.32$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.43 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 838.19$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.19 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 806$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.84 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Inner Circle | 28c | 790.23$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.78 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 613$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.32 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 573.96$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.43 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 524.32$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.45 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 510.46$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.23 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 500.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.22 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Inner Circle | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Inner Circle | 15c | 462.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Inner Circle | 53c | 249.97$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.14 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Nemiga Gaming | 64c | 247$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 74c | 211.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Inner Circle | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nemiga Gaming | 64c | 176.35$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 176.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 163.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Inner Circle | 33c | 140$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 125.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fd…60f7backed Inner Circle | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 97.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Inner Circle | 23c | 63.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Inner Circle | 37c | 53.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nemiga Gaming | 62c | 51.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 44.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Inner Circle | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 38.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Inner Circle | 62c | 32.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…7abdbacked Inner Circle | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Inner Circle | 67c | 29.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Inner Circle | 64c | 18.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 79c | 18.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier 2 PlayoffsInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.