Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0865f0b833b80e46d3fbaf4a4488424d628bde49b79da5c12e4d1c3355ffd23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a30…090abacked Yes | 33c | 2,807$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…10d7backed Yes | 34c | 2,782$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…99afbacked Yes | 33c | 2,633$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…307cbacked No | 66c | 1,460$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dca…0281backed No | 67c | 1,421$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…ddb6backed No | 67c | 1,386$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…4b74backed No | 67c | 1,381$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…e197backed No | 66c | 1,322$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd379…8a2ebacked No | 67c | 1,252$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 683.6$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.62 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 503.79$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 339.31$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 33c | 331.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 29c | 258.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 33c | 244.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.68 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 226.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 212.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 67c | 205.48$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 7c | 175.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 25c | 169$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 152.74$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 25c | 131.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…8e7dbacked No | 79c | 130.19$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 66c | 127.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 25c | 125.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 119.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 25c | 94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 70c | 86.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 25c | 85.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 39c | 82.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 66c | 75.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 30c | 69.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 70c | 68.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 67.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…1edebacked No | 77c | 63.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 58.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 71c | 57.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 18c | 56.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…19a4backed Yes | 35c | 54.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…7e41backed Yes | 28c | 49.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 74c | 43.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 42.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 45c | 40.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 61c | 38.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3e…bd35backed No | 67c | 32.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 72c | 29.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…bd0bbacked No | 79c | 27.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 75c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 24.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 22.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb8…c6f5backed No | 75c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5888…1109backed Yes | 57c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 71c | 17.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.