Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc08c10bba937fc948034e404a386407f31c2e1cfaf7c2c35290d4d8adfc3a4d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,833$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 77c | 1,000$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.22 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 13c | 364.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 325.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 302.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 278.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 234$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 199.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 29c | 194.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 193.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 24c | 193.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 170.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 8c | 146.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 22c | 135$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 29c | 118.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 109.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 19c | 108.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 108.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 108.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 16c | 108$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…13c3backed Yes | 18c | 83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 30c | 73.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 16c | 64.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 62.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 52.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 47.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 27c | 46.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 42.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 27c | 39.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 35.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 32.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7b…332dbacked No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 22.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 19.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.