Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x844be22d8a74bfde4a14d09c0878c2ae8a68f21e964a4487600fc795d0bf44de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 66c | 3,781$2,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.28 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 34c | 842.91$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 655.1$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.69 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 21c | 494.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 33c | 454.68$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 363.53$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 74c | 337.66$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 6c | 315.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 293.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 36c | 277.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 33c | 257.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 31c | 243.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 23c | 220$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 37c | 209$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 58c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…11b5backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 31c | 192.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 159.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 33c | 157.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 33c | 157.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 76c | 152.02$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 146.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 34c | 144.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 67c | 144.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 31c | 137$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…5fadbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 25c | 129$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 36c | 126.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 80c | 121.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 35c | 113.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 108.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 25c | 108.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 67c | 108$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 18c | 102.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 64c | 92.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 41c | 91.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 79c | 89.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 77c | 88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 62c | 85.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 27c | 85.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…10e4backed No | 30c | 82.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed Yes | 78c | 82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 70c | 80.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…a639backed No | 26c | 74.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 64.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 47c | 55.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 30c | 54.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 71c | 52.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc37…a2f4backed No | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…091abacked No | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 64c | 45.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 44.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 42.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 38c | 42.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…168abacked Yes | 71c | 42.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed No | 30c | 42.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 55c | 40.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 39.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 36c | 39.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 29c | 35.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 35c | 33.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 70c | 33.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 48c | 31.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 39c | 30.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…7010backed Yes | 70c | 29.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 72c | 29.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 70c | 28.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 39c | 26.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2a…ced1backed Yes | 71c | 25.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…bdc6backed Yes | 55c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 53c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 66c | 16.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed Yes | 73c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a93…92e9backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa242…605abacked Yes | 71c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C or below on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.