NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0a27fd1b1c464d4b88ef00f87ec5a20d658362e22d40539e6cef236111b8991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 2,105$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.61 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 48c | 1,687$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.76 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 48c | 1,150$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.07 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…a659backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked Over | 47c | 394.42$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 48c | 354.17$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 54c | 250$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.16 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 207.41$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 52c | 150.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 53c | 112.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 49c | 86.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 70.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 53c | 58.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…58e8backed Over | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 34c | 34.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 24.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9d…ef44backed Over | 49c | 23.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1c…a2ecbacked Over | 49c | 23.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f8…5b4cbacked Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 66c | 22.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 53c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd09b…24e8backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…81f0backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…689cbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Under | 51c | 19.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Senators: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Sabres vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.