NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59232f6d15d00fddf3d6a1a9f9d3b7ff330b082a8fc93f1244d7fe5a1c065ba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senatorsof Senators, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Sabres | 69c | 4,941$3,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,409.07 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Senators | 31c | 2,456$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.56 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Senators | 31c | 2,319$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Senators | 31c | 309.69$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.69 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sabres | 66c | 270$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Senators | 30c | 262.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.89 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Senators | 10c | 175.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.36 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Sabres | 70c | 168.34$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Senators | 33c | 164.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.88 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Senators | 31c | 149.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.63 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Senators | 30c | 139.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Sabres | 70c | 122.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Senators | 25c | 120.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Senators | 21c | 99.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…7799backed Senators | 31c | 93.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Senators | 17c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Senators | 31c | 76.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Sabres | 69c | 72.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Sabres | 65c | 59.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Senators | 38c | 59.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Sabres | 71c | 55.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Senators | 31c | 54.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 207 | 56.5%117 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Sabres | 70c | 49.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Sabres | 70c | 49.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Senators | 31c | 48.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Senators | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Sabres | 69c | 35.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Senators | 36c | 34.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Senators | 32c | 34.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed Sabres | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Sabres | 70c | 29.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Sabres | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Sabres | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Sabres | 71c | 26.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…a08abacked Sabres | 70c | 20.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Sabres | 69c | 19.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Sabres | 69c | 16.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Sabres vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.