NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Heat
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0ec3263e977c824fa661720a3ef34c49c24ed0749c3bdbc9c0d9a220e707f73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Pistons, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa34e…895ebacked Pistons | 14c | 3,500$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Heat | 75c | 3,024$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Heat | 75c | 2,671$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.11 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Pistons | 6c | 2,015$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe51…3982backed Pistons | 25c | 2,003$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Pistons | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…1698backed Heat | 75c | 1,495$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.81 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…805cbacked Pistons | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 428 | 27.3%117 W · 311 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…e0febacked Pistons | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Pistons | 24c | 999.91$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Pistons | 23c | 466.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.38 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…18a5backed Pistons | 25c | 330$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f52…0380backed Pistons | 25c | 290$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Heat | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fc…8b32backed Pistons | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9857…be38backed Pistons | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb3…9542backed Heat | 77c | 177.54$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa786…0d36backed Pistons | 26c | 173.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Pistons | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Pistons | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 276 | 31.2%86 W · 190 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Heat | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…7531backed Heat | 76c | 122.91$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pistons | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe680…8788backed Pistons | 25c | 99.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Pistons | 24c | 99.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 774 | 37.5%290 W · 484 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed Heat | 72c | 98.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Pistons | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pistons | 26c | 75.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 424 | 34.4%146 W · 278 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Heat | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 208 | 51.4%107 W · 101 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…011bbacked Pistons | 28c | 71.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…770cbacked Heat | 76c | 70.69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…93b4backed Heat | 77c | 62.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0150…a67abacked Heat | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Heat | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf957…4d42backed Heat | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f18…9536backed Heat | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc3…0915backed Pistons | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…1233backed Heat | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce7…fd4abacked Pistons | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…16bcbacked Pistons | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…16ebbacked Heat | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Heat | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 139 | 69.1%96 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Heat | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a5…6e66backed Heat | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…c67cbacked Heat | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…9da7backed Heat | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.