NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc10fdcd38c941b69f276363e6f1689d95e0a9d8dba21182bac8f97566984845a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Under | 53c | 26,762$14,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,578.36 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 26,053$12,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,244.89 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 1,986$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.71 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 52c | 1,171$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.2 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 47c | 970.15$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.97 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 963.52$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.81 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 644$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.56 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 53c | 603.77$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.77 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 53c | 358.87$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.67 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…eb96backed Under | 53c | 342.09$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.78 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Under | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 53c | 101.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…53acbacked Under | 53c | 98.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 20c | 93.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 88.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…094abacked Under | 53c | 57.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under | 63c | 40.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Under | 54c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 52c | 33.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Under | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b30…a315backed Under | 74c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Flames vs. PenguinsFlames won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.