NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd897de0c035eee90edf4d2ee72171eb2d99806860d86a6f8d3c0f3839c9cbca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flamesof Penguins, Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 39c | 16,610$6,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,457.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Flames | 61c | 10,963$6,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,275.41 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Flames | 61c | 2,260$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.4 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Flames | 62c | 1,984$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Flames | 62c | 552.67$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.02 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Flames | 61c | 520$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Flames | 61c | 511.9$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.64 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…b414backed Penguins | 39c | 257.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Penguins | 12c | 203.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Penguins | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Flames | 61c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Flames | 61c | 130$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Penguins | 38c | 128.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Penguins | 39c | 122.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Flames | 64c | 109.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Flames | 62c | 104$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Penguins | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Penguins | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Flames | 62c | 93.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Flames | 62c | 93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…d640backed Flames | 62c | 86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Flames | 63c | 80.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Penguins | 38c | 75.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 37c | 75.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Flames | 62c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Flames | 61c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Penguins | 37c | 51.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Penguins | 36c | 48.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Penguins | 36c | 47.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Flames | 61c | 36.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Flames | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Flames | 62c | 28.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…3bc3backed Flames | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Flames | 61c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…9a1dbacked Flames | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Flames vs. PenguinsFlames won
- Flames vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.