Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc12223e85a53ebfaea5d0fca5a419efea892ed6dbfcd1dd8624040e41ff3761d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb00a…2fcfbacked No | 0c | 19,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed No | 23c | 893$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 54c | 559.84$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.36 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 410$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.7 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 39c | 396.84$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.49 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 41c | 359.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.03 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 46c | 304.07$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 25c | 288.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 62c | 287.73$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 56c | 266.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 264.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 66c | 196.38$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 43c | 184.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 24c | 166.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.91 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 64c | 164.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 162.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 68c | 158.61$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 156.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 54c | 156.12$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 67c | 153.15$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 55c | 115.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 72c | 115.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…6aa1backed Yes | 31c | 111.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 40c | 107.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 32c | 101.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 70c | 100.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked No | 73c | 78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 73.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 50.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 67c | 49.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 79c | 46.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 59c | 42.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 58c | 33.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007e…c290backed Yes | 51c | 29.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…99f3backed No | 69c | 25.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 64c | 25.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 59c | 25.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 24.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 66c | 24.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 66c | 22.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 72c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 18.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 76c | 18.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 66c | 18.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 77c | 16.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…e1d1backed Yes | 77c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.