Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1414533d04f456d22adb061cc2ac947941c4b97e35aeeab464a73a83a27c42c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 2,531$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.74 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 25c | 2,500$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 75c | 2,461$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.25 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 26c | 1,566$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 831$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 27c | 555.26$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed No | 76c | 550.17$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 74c | 499.56$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 25c | 439.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 75c | 432$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 23c | 365.21$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 26c | 307.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 24c | 255.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 195.9$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 23c | 168$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 75c | 132$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…96bebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 23c | 60.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x503b…d52cbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 26c | 43.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed No | 76c | 39.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 74c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will RB Leipzig vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw?No won
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.