NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc162c3bb7451864c9a0159fa4cf2d4008faa793bfd2c206c09f8d21f7840f99d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Heat | 52c | 12,045$6,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,263.04 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Spurs | 48c | 5,190$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,678.33 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Spurs | 49c | 4,776$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435.76 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Spurs | 48c | 1,500$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Spurs | 48c | 1,500$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Spurs | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Spurs | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Spurs | 49c | 1,194$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.94 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Spurs | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 137 | 40.9%56 W · 81 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Spurs | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Spurs | 47c | 825.13$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.61 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Spurs | 48c | 375$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs | 48c | 357.92$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.84 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Heat | 51c | 201.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Spurs | 46c | 199.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Heat | 53c | 188.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Heat | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb3…d5f7backed Spurs | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Spurs | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b0…ac6dbacked Heat | 55c | 27.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Spurs | 48c | 25.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…baf1backed Heat | 53c | 24.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac13…6a8fbacked Heat | 53c | 23.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…7f52backed Heat | 55c | 23.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…9fe9backed Heat | 53c | 22.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72b…dd61backed Heat | 55c | 22.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…84a1backed Heat | 53c | 21.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff4…d9a7backed Heat | 55c | 20.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…0d9ebacked Heat | 53c | 20.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9953…089ebacked Heat | 55c | 18.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…24a0backed Heat | 55c | 18.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. HeatSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 218.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.