Tennis · resolved market
ITF Columbus: Sakura Hosogi vs Sara Daavettila
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc17f3744b183fa0fe7d91961c97ffb3c2419ebd08fde945208080b7ddd049c68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sakura Hosogiof Sakura Hosogi, Sara Daavettila
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Sakura Hosogi | 68c | 732.94$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Sakura Hosogi | 51c | 417.74$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.31 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Sara Daavettila | 12c | 341.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sara Daavettila | 44c | 285.13$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Sakura Hosogi | 55c | 257.27$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.87 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Sara Daavettila | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sakura Hosogi | 73c | 198.07$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Sara Daavettila | 27c | 166.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Sakura Hosogi | 80c | 157.5$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Sara Daavettila | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Sara Daavettila | 35c | 125.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Sara Daavettila | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Sara Daavettila | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Sara Daavettila | 39c | 84.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Sara Daavettila | 29c | 72.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Sakura Hosogi | 63c | 72.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Sara Daavettila | 31c | 63.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Sara Daavettila | 28c | 57.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Sara Daavettila | 37c | 54.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 434 | 44.9%195 W · 239 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Sara Daavettila | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Sara Daavettila | 38c | 40.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Sara Daavettila | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Sara Daavettila | 31c | 36.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Sara Daavettila | 35c | 35.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…4fffbacked Sara Daavettila | 35c | 35.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Sara Daavettila | 35c | 34.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Sara Daavettila | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Sakura Hosogi | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Sakura Hosogi | 72c | 22.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 604 | 52.5%317 W · 287 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…7a09backed Sakura Hosogi | 56c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Sakura Hosogi | 69c | 21.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 992 | 44.7%443 W · 549 L | -29.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Sakura Hosogi | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.