Tennis · resolved market
ATP Washington D.C: Tien vs. Rublev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc18b24948dc41cc2b5565dde2fb8a5846f402a8240670af2f36ffd8bed871e18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Tien | 72c | 3,622$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.04 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Rublev | 28c | 3,208$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Rublev | 68c | 2,244$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.36 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Rublev | 28c | 2,172$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.29 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tien | 36c | 1,223$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.55 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Tien | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…815dbacked Tien | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…f36bbacked Rublev | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Rublev | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…addfbacked Tien | 33c | 995$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c5…1587backed Tien | 33c | 990$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Tien | 32c | 728.65$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.43 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…cc59backed Rublev | 67c | 675$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc555…d999backed Rublev | 67c | 610$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Rublev | 60c | 602.93$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.95 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Tien | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45b…d775backed Rublev | 67c | 390$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Tien | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Rublev | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Tien | 37c | 271.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.04 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Tien | 37c | 269.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.3 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…9cd5backed Rublev | 67c | 245$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Tien | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Tien | 71c | 164.59$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…060ebacked Rublev | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Tien | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc287…f30dbacked Rublev | 67c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Rublev | 69c | 127.54$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rublev | 69c | 111.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Tien | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rublev | 63c | 94.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c24…fbc9backed Rublev | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tien | 31c | 72.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Tien | 33c | 56.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rublev | 72c | 52.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Tien | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Rublev | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…5e8dbacked Rublev | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Tien | 33c | 38.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f1e4backed Rublev | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rublev | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Rublev | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.