Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ferencvarosi TC win on 2025-09-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc19c4c1ad6610103a32d8014ff1dbd0c31965e60687ec12390ec84ed925caef6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 10,477$4,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,535.37 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 57c | 5,000$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked No | 57c | 3,263$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.27 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -8.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 56c | 1,189$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.01 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 44c | 1,010$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 43c | 761.1$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.27 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 57c | 204$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.76 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed No | 58c | 117.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 101.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 57c | 75.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 55c | 73.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 45c | 71.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45b…933ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 56c | 26.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ferencvarosi TC win on 2025-09-25?this page
- Will Ferencvarosi TC vs. Plzen end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Plzen win on 2025-09-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.