Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Plzen win on 2025-09-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa88af9f8d533f1c05d4ae4b75744bc34f829a4363cd687c038032203826531e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 6,452$4,619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.27 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 28c | 4,999$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.77 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d1…817ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 30c | 1,550$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 56c | 1,516$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.73 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 40c | 1,304$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.05 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 30c | 1,132$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 28c | 753.06$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.41 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 70c | 721$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.3 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Yes | 57c | 702.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 57c | 652.92$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +149.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 17c | 415$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.8 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 71c | 406.97$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 20c | 375$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 70c | 218$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54b…3859backed Yes | 32c | 206.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…0554backed Yes | 73c | 193.32$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 69c | 189.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8874…0b31backed Yes | 55c | 145.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 56c | 117.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 66c | 93.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 57c | 88.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 68c | 61.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Yes | 56c | 58.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f806backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…7293backed No | 67c | 38.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0860…d30fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 29c | 35.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Plzen win on 2025-09-25?this page
- Will Ferencvarosi TC vs. Plzen end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Ferencvarosi TC win on 2025-09-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.