Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1aba8c41d201876582bbff674a5d626346e180598097bd65941a4cc09b279e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 73c | 9,296$6,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.12 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 5,529$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.48 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 5,462$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.04 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 3,730$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.43 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1768…e91fbacked Aurora | 75c | 2,992$2,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 1,883$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.53 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 1,771$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.52 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Aurora | 57c | 1,647$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.08 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 853.85$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 837.88$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora | 75c | 632.01$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.01 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 74c | 480$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…5e99backed Aurora | 76c | 473.1$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora | 69c | 333$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Nigma Galaxy | 9c | 309$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…3499backed Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 285.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed Aurora | 73c | 239.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 227.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 395 | 50.1%198 W · 197 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Aurora | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…f2bebacked Nigma Galaxy | 42c | 162.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Aurora | 64c | 148.44$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 138.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 31c | 109.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Aurora | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 89.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed Aurora | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…951cbacked Aurora | 61c | 62.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 52.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Aurora | 71c | 42.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Aurora | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Aurora | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Aurora | 77c | 35.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Aurora | 56c | 33.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf3…7513backed Aurora | 70c | 25.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 22.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…808dbacked Aurora | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO5) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.