Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2740445fa4712e438e2290a34d4adfaacc0eb19383706221d3f8e499e18d623c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac70…2d8dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 10,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,299.66 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 3,312$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.9 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Aurora | 67c | 3,012$2,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Aurora | 67c | 2,985$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.07 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 66c | 2,802$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.48 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Aurora | 67c | 1,657$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.72 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Aurora | 70c | 1,527$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.62 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Aurora | 68c | 1,270$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.5 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 995.63$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.56 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora | 68c | 913.17$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.17 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Aurora | 67c | 701.49$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.49 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Aurora | 67c | 477.61$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.61 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…3bfbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 70c | 395.42$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Aurora | 67c | 291.49$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.32 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb787…ad0abacked Aurora | 70c | 213.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Aurora | 73c | 208.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 180.83$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.11 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c3…f75cbacked Aurora | 70c | 142.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Aurora | 67c | 141.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…7132backed Aurora | 14c | 140.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 12cpaid | +206.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacf3…7513backed Aurora | 72c | 117.24$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…f2bebacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 109$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd537…0f7cbacked Aurora | 76c | 108.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b2…b787backed Aurora | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…2359backed Aurora | 67c | 69.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa4…71c5backed Nigma Galaxy | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Aurora | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Aurora | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed Aurora | 68c | 36.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…1a79backed Aurora | 80c | 31.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Aurora | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf883…b8b4backed Aurora | 70c | 28.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 187 | 64.7%121 W · 66 L | +17.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Aurora | 67c | 22.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Aurora | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…d2b5backed Aurora | 77c | 13.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy (BO5) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 3 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.