Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1bf5925632ab795d844eb07e903cdda271f3b6682192055378660827201f0c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 3c | 1,194$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 23c | 713.28$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 16c | 438.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…50c8backed Yes | 25c | 382$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 77c | 346.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 280.72$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 251.28$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…e481backed Yes | 27c | 249.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 75c | 235.57$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 213.78$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 78c | 202.08$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…0416backed Yes | 26c | 183.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…617cbacked Yes | 26c | 173.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes | 23c | 167.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked No | 67c | 157.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29a…bbdebacked No | 60c | 155.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 74c | 119.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 26c | 110.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 15c | 105.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 93.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 22c | 90.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 24c | 83.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3e…8b7cbacked Yes | 26c | 80.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x130a…5c12backed Yes | 26c | 78.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 26c | 76.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…8f4ebacked Yes | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed Yes | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…f457backed Yes | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa025…1607backed Yes | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf4…4fe5backed No | 74c | 66.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…9c4fbacked No | 75c | 65.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed No | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 77c | 64.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…b36fbacked No | 75c | 60.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64c…f45ebacked No | 75c | 59.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 24c | 57.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 57.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…722bbacked No | 75c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 76c | 51.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 76c | 51.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 76c | 49.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 76c | 49.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…4bfabacked No | 70c | 49.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 76c | 48.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 76c | 45.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 76c | 43.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 76c | 38.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked No | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed No | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…5feebacked No | 76c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…cddbbacked No | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…d9b8backed No | 76c | 24.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked No | 76c | 21.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 76c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed No | 77c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 74c | 19.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 165 | 61.2%101 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 76c | 19.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 76c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 76c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 76c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 76c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 76c | 17.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-21?this page
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-21?Yes won
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.