Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1cf667f6347dde1bf6cb85d015bf255e6b2ef8c553b97bb391b4224a79832b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Majchrzakof Paul, Majchrzak
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Majchrzak | 50c | 3,794$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.86 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Paul | 50c | 2,481$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.32 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca70…3bafbacked Paul | 53c | 1,461$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Majchrzak | 50c | 1,020$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.21 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Paul | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Majchrzak | 47c | 599.99$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Majchrzak | 47c | 574.47$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.51 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Paul | 53c | 451.47$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Paul | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 481 | 44.5%214 W · 267 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86c…b76fbacked Majchrzak | 65c | 170$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 207 | 63.3%131 W · 76 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Paul | 35c | 83.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…768ebacked Majchrzak | 64c | 83.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Paul | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Majchrzak | 48c | 67.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Majchrzak | 48c | 59.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Paul | 53c | 50.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…2ce1backed Paul | 51c | 35.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked Paul | 52c | 29.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Majchrzak | 47c | 27.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 586 | 65.5%384 W · 202 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5)this page
- Kamil Majchrzak vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Majchrzak vs. Paul: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Majchrzak vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Tommy PaulKamil Majchrzak won
- Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs PaulMajchrzak won
- Set 2 Winner: Majchrzak vs PaulMajchrzak won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.