Tennis · resolved market
ITF Bastia-Lucciana: Arthur Bellegy vs Rodrigo Alujas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1fc6ebe8cb91b93e6e9b73aa41599ee8be317a19d2e5332cb18337666db6674
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rodrigo Alujasof Arthur Bellegy, Rodrigo Alujas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Arthur Bellegy | 41c | 1,799$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.1 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 58c | 1,400$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Arthur Bellegy | 38c | 731.72$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.52 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rodrigo Alujas | 61c | 450$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…a593backed Rodrigo Alujas | 67c | 223.06$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 429 | 30.5%131 W · 298 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Arthur Bellegy | 14c | 186$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Arthur Bellegy | 40c | 126.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Rodrigo Alujas | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 354 | 57.3%203 W · 151 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Rodrigo Alujas | 66c | 83.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Rodrigo Alujas | 56c | 79.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Rodrigo Alujas | 56c | 79.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Rodrigo Alujas | 65c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Arthur Bellegy | 37c | 72.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Rodrigo Alujas | 61c | 49.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 57c | 45.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 273 | 63.4%173 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Arthur Bellegy | 35c | 45.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Rodrigo Alujas | 46c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 353 | 49.9%176 W · 177 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…f93dbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 61c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c9…234dbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…d0c7backed Rodrigo Alujas | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Rodrigo Alujas | 78c | 17.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 139 | 65.5%91 W · 48 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Rodrigo Alujas | 65c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.