TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Florida State Seminoles (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Florida State Seminolesof Florida State Seminoles, Stanford Cardinal
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,127
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,252

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,127 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05b9…2adfbacked Florida State Seminoles51c3,887$2,000 inWon+$1,886.5857248.1%275 W · 297 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Stanford Cardinal49c3,818$1,864 inLost-$1,863.6612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Florida State Seminoles51c857.39$435 inWon+$422.086844.1%30 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Stanford Cardinal48c585.22$280 inLost-$279.845,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Florida State Seminoles54c512$276 inWon+$235.521,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Florida State Seminoles50c424$212 inWon+$21274649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Stanford Cardinal50c418$209 inLost-$20944549.4%220 W · 225 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Florida State Seminoles48c344.06$165 inWon+$178.991,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Stanford Cardinal52c312$162 inLost-$162.244,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Stanford Cardinal47c212.76$100 inLost-$10013052.3%68 W · 62 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x783c…6900backed Stanford Cardinal50c181$91 inLost-$90.513735%48 W · 89 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Florida State Seminoles53c70$37 inWon+$32.91,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Stanford Cardinal51c56.24$28 inLost-$28.4199848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Stanford Cardinal46c47.21$22 inLost-$21.7566831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Stanford Cardinal53c37.73$20 inLost-$20.1897447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Florida State Seminoles51c30$15 inWon+$14.793447.9%447 W · 487 L-19.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Florida State Seminoles51c29.41$15 inWon+$14.4111445.6%52 W · 62 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Florida State Seminoles50c27.37$14 inWon+$13.7925239.3%99 W · 153 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Florida State Seminoles54c27$15 inWon+$12.4921651.4%111 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x392c…0bb4backed Florida State Seminoles50c20$10 inWon+$102733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.